Lexingtonvs
Monterey Bay
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Lexington are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold a 19.2-point power-rating edge (54.8 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.7% in the USL Championship, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
65.7%
Model confidence
65.7%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60