Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Lexington are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Brooklyn are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold a 19.7-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 33.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.5% in the USL Championship, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.75/1.25