Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Lens are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Rouen are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lens hold a 40.2-point power-rating edge (76.7 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lens holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
74.2%
Model confidence
9.0%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60