Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lens are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Charleroi are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Charleroi hold a 7.9-point power-rating edge (76.7 v 84.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lens holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40