Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Lens are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Boulogne are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lens hold a 40.6-point power-rating edge (76.7 v 36.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lens holds the strongest overall chance at 82% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
81.6%
Model confidence
9.3%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00