Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Leixoes are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tondela are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tondela hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (44.9 v 52.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.7% in the Segunda Liga, while Tondela holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
19.7%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20