Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixoes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Leixoes are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Casa Pia are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leixoes hold a 57.4-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 22.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Leixoes holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leixoes
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Leixoes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60