Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leganes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Leganes are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Mérida AD are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Leganes hold a 43.1-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 24.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Leganes holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leganes
Probability
73.7%
Model confidence
11.3%
Leganes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00