Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lecce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Lecce are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Bistrica are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lecce hold a 21.4-point power-rating edge (41.5 v 20.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lecce holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lecce
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Lecce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00