Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Le Mans are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Le Havre are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Le Mans hold a 23.5-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 44.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Le Mans holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
10.2%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60