Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lazio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Mantova are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (64.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Coppa Italia, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
13.9%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80