Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lazio are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Avellino are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Avellino hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (75.0 v 91.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00