GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 8/2/2026, 2:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Las Vegas Lights · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Las Vegas Lights are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the USL Championship, while Las Vegas Lights holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Las Vegas Lights

Probability

39.6%

Model confidence

39.6%

Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Las Vegas LightsWWWLL

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Phoenix RisingDWLLL

GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Las Vegas LightsPhoenix Rising
45.6Attack42.1
52.6Defence54.4
45.6Form38.6
50.6Power46.4
1.36xG1.08
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