Las Vegas Lightsvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/2/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Las Vegas Lights · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Las Vegas Lights are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the USL Championship, while Las Vegas Lights holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Las Vegas Lights
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Las Vegas Lights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20