Las Vegas Lightsvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/3/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Las Vegas Lights are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Lexington are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.1 against 53.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.4% in the USL Championship, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
34.4%
Model confidence
34.4%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60