Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Larne are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Tre Fiori are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Larne hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (34.9 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the UEFA Champions League, while Tre Fiori holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00