Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sousa · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Laguna are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Sousa are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sousa hold a 19.6-point power-rating edge (20.4 v 40.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.1% in the Serie D, while Sousa holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sousa
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
24.1%
Sousa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00