Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kerry · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Kerry are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Wexford are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Kerry hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the First Division, while Kerry holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Kerry
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Kerry has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00