Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karpaty · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Karpaty are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Stjarnan are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Karpaty hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (89.7 v 83.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Karpaty holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Karpaty
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Karpaty has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00