Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karlberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Karlberg are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Arlanda are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Karlberg hold a 33.6-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Karlberg holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 80% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Karlberg
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Karlberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60