Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kaluga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Kaluga are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Urozhay are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Kaluga hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Kaluga holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Kaluga
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Kaluga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80