GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 3/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Club Nacional · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Juventud are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Club Nacional are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Club Nacional hold a 10.0-point power-rating edge (43.4 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.6% in the Primera División, while Club Nacional holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Club Nacional

Probability

41.6%

Model confidence

41.6%

Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

JuventudDLWLD

GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Club NacionalLWDWD

GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
JuventudClub Nacional
37.7Attack50.7
50.7Defence55.1
34.8Form50.7
43.4Power53.4
1.05xG1.41
View match centre →