Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Järfälla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Järfälla are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Arlanda are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Järfälla hold a 21.7-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Svenska Cupen, while Järfälla holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Järfälla
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
11.3%
Järfälla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00