Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jong AZ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Jong AZ are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Jong Ajax are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Jong Ajax hold a 33.8-point power-rating edge (54.8 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Jong AZ holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Jong AZ
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Jong AZ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80