Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Jong Ajax are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Emmen are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Emmen hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Eerste Divisie, while Emmen holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
12.6%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60