Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Jonava are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Garliava are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Garliava hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (46.3 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.0% in the 1 Lyga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00