Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Joinville are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cianorte are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Joinville hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (54.2 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.4% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60