Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugansk · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Izberbash are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Lugansk are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Lugansk hold a 14.3-point power-rating edge (27.5 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.0% in the Second League - Group 1, while Lugansk holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lugansk
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Lugansk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60