Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipatinga · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ivinhema are 3W-0D-1L in their last 4 (WWLW), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded, while Ipatinga are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Ipatinga hold a 7.9-point power-rating edge (44.2 v 52.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 20.5% in the Serie D, while Ipatinga holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ipatinga
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
20.5%
Ipatinga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.50/1.25
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60