Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ituano · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ituano are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Maringá are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 50.6 against 49.7. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.8% in the Serie C, while Ituano holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ituano
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Ituano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80