Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ituano are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Maranhão are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDDL), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 50.6 against 49.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.2% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60