Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
20%
HighconfidenceItuano are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Barra are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and ituano hold a 6.9-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 43.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Serie C, favouring a draw with 20.5% confidence, a 32% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
20.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ItuanoLLLDD
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BarraLLWLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ItuanoBarra
37.5Attack35.4
64.6Defence60.4
45.8Form31.3
50.6Power43.6
0.98xG0.67