Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irtysh · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Irtysh are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Zhetysu are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Irtysh hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (41.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.8% in the Premier League, while Irtysh holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irtysh
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Irtysh has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60