Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Irtysh are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Kaspiy are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Kaspiy hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (41.3 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.7% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.8%
Model confidence
16.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20