Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iraty · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Iraty are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Samas are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Iraty hold a 28.2-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 22.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Paranaense - 3, while Iraty holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Iraty
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Iraty has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 0 · GA 2 · avg 0.00/2.00