Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irao · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Irao are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Gardabani are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 4.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Irao hold a 30.1-point power-rating edge (59.7 v 29.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.3% in the Liga 3, while Irao holds the strongest overall chance at 84% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irao
Probability
84.1%
Model confidence
15.3%
Irao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 2 · GA 24 · avg 0.40/4.80