Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipatinga · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ipatinga are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ivinhema are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Ipatinga hold a 7.9-point power-rating edge (52.1 v 44.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.3% in the Serie D, while Ipatinga holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ipatinga
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
19.3%
Ipatinga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20