Indy Elevenvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Indy Eleven are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lexington are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold a 5.7-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 54.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the USL Championship, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60