Independientevs
Union Santa Fe
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 3/10/2026, 10:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Independiente are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Union Santa Fe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Independiente hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (52.7 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Liga Profesional Argentina, while Independiente holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Independiente
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
14.3%
Independiente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60