Independiente FSJvs
Marcílio Dias
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie D · 6/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Independiente FSJ are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Marcílio Dias are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Marcílio Dias hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (50.2 v 54.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.7% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 13% BTTS chance and 5% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60