GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie D · 6/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Independiente FSJ are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Marcílio Dias are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Marcílio Dias hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (50.2 v 54.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.7% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 13% BTTS chance and 5% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

58.7%

Model confidence

58.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Independiente FSJLDLDW

GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40

BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Marcílio DiasLDWWW

GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Independiente FSJMarcílio Dias
11.1Attack33.3
86.1Defence73.8
44.4Form50.0
50.2Power54.5
0.40xG0.45
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