Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ilves are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 3.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Gnistan are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Gnistan hold an 8.8-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 52.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
35.1%
Model confidence
35.1%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 8 · avg 3.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20