Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iguatu · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Iguatu are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Moto Club are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Iguatu hold a 27.6-point power-rating edge (65.5 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.4% in the Serie D, while Iguatu holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Iguatu
Probability
67.4%
Model confidence
67.4%
Iguatu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60