Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Mariehamn are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Lahti are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lahti hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (21.8 v 52.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.5% in the Veikkausliiga, while Lahti holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
66.7%
Model confidence
19.5%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40