Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Araguaína · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-3
Humaitá are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 3.60 conceded, while Araguaína are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Araguaína hold a 57.3-point power-rating edge (6.7 v 64.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.3% in the Serie D, while Araguaína holds the strongest overall chance at 90% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Araguaína
Probability
89.9%
Model confidence
17.3%
Araguaína has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80