Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Hércules are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Castellón are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Castellón hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 79.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Castellón holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
10.0%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00