Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalborg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Holstebro are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Aalborg are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Aalborg hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.7% in the DBU Pokalen, while Aalborg holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aalborg
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
7.7%
Aalborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20