Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Herd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Herd are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while NTNUI are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Herd hold a 23.1-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 37.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 82.7% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Herd holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 88% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Herd
Probability
82.7%
Model confidence
82.7%
Herd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80