Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Herd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Herd are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Nardo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Herd hold a 22.5-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.1% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Herd holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 80% BTTS chance and 92% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Herd
Probability
75.1%
Model confidence
75.1%
Herd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20