Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Herd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-2
Herd are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 2.75 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Byåsen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 9 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Herd hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.9% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Herd holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 85% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Herd
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
6.9%
Herd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.75/2.00
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00