Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groningen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Heracles are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Groningen are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Groningen hold a 23.2-point power-rating edge (36.4 v 59.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Groningen holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Groningen
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
13.1%
Groningen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00