Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heracles · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Heracles are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Den Bosch are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Heracles hold a 35.4-point power-rating edge (72.0 v 36.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Eerste Divisie, while Heracles holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Heracles
Probability
67.6%
Model confidence
11.3%
Heracles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60